31 August 2017

Analysis of key trends in the global precious metals market

GK & nbsp; PLAURUM analysts have prepared an analysis of the key trends of the global precious metals market, which will be relevant in the second half of 2017. Gold may rise in the & nbsp; price against & nbsp; against the background of risks in the & nbsp; global economy and & nbsp; raising interest rates of the Fed and & nbsp; provoke an increase in the cost of platinum. The cost of silver will increase & nbsp; due to an increase in investment demand, palladium will not be much cheaper than the growth in world production of petrol cars, and the price of iridium and rhodium will remain significantly higher than last year because of the continued shortage of these metals for nonsp; p>

Gold and & nbsp; silver

The current price for an ounce of gold today is $ 1265. For our current & nbsp; we & nbsp; set the range to & nbsp; $ 1120 & nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; 1350 per & nbsp; ounce, and & nbsp; not yet & nbsp; plan to revise these expectations. The current price is relatively high, but there is potential for its & nbsp; further growth. The main factor in this growth can be another raising of the Fed's rates & nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; The news background around this event will push gold up to & nbsp; the level of 1300 & ndash; 1350. Demand for & nbsp; gold is generated, mainly by investors, and this means that it will grow with any potential risks in the & nbsp; global economy: sanctions, crises and & nbsp; ave.

Silver is trading at & nbsp; $ 16.6 per & nbsp; ounce, this is a fairly low price. At this level, we & nbsp; are seeing an increase in investment demand for & nbsp; silver (from & nbsp; global industry demand remains stable), therefore, during & nbsp; II & nbsp; half of 2017, we & nbsp; expect a price of & nbsp; within $ 18 & 19; The main driver for moving up the & nbsp; silver is the decline in the US dollar index.

Palladium and & nbsp; platinum

Palladium was actively trading on the & nbsp; global market on & nbsp; June & mdash; July of the current year. At the same time, futures for & nbsp; palladium were by & nbsp; a few percent cheaper than physical metal in & nbsp; because of the shortage of the latter. Thus, there was a rare situation in the market when physical demand exceeded physical supply. For this time palladium has risen considerably. For a while, he & nbsp; bargained at & nbsp; $ 920 per & nbsp; ounce, but quickly dropped below $ 900. The price is still high. We & nbsp; believe that this trend will go on & nbsp; in the very near future. The main feature of & nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; is a three-fold increase by the exchange of guarantee coverage for & nbsp; palladium. The exchange sees a risky market situation on the & nbsp; market. A change in the guarantee security creates a situation for increased volatility, the & nbsp; there is a price for & nbsp; palladium will go sharply either down or up. We & nbsp; believe that a strong growth is not expected & nbsp; costs & nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; the situation with the presence of physical metal has normalized, the market for physical metal and & nbsp; futures have now leveled off, and & nbsp; movement. With & nbsp; the other hand, & nbsp; should not be & nbsp; a strong fall. That & nbsp; we are & nbsp; waiting for price fluctuations to rise, but & nbsp; in & nbsp; rather narrow range. The point is & nbsp; that a significant proportion of the demand for & nbsp; palladium in the & nbsp; world generates consumption in the & nbsp; automotive industry. The higher the car sales, the more palladium manufacturers require. Car sales in & nbsp; European countries, China, Japan in & nbsp; 2017 showed an increase; in & nbsp; the US there is a decline in the market, but & nbsp; insignificant. It is important that the demand for & nbsp; gasoline cars exceeded the demand for & nbsp; diesel, in & nbsp; mainly, against the & nbsp; background & nbsp; & nbsp; & gt; dieselgate & raquo ;. In the & nbsp; catalytic systems of gasoline vehicles, the proportion of palladium used is 70%, and & nbsp; in & nbsp; diesel & nbsp; & mdash & nbsp; about 30%. Therefore, palladium, if and & nbsp; shows a decrease, then & nbsp; to & nbsp; the boundaries of $ 800 & ndash; 820.

By & nbsp; compared with & nbsp; last year, export of platinum from & nbsp; Russia is stable, while there is a slight increase. In the & nbsp; North American market (Canada, USA), the situation is reversed & nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; stable exports with & nbsp; a small minus. In & nbsp; South Africa, there is a drop in the production of platinum and & nbsp; palladium. The demand for & nbsp; platinum on the & nbsp; side and & nbsp; investors and & nbsp; industry is declining. This is also typical of & nbsp; for Russia, whose platinum market, in general, follows the & nbsp; global market.
Therefore, the price for an ounce of platinum is relatively low and & nbsp; is at a level of $ 945. However, & nbsp; less, platinum before & nbsp; the end of the year can break the psychological mark of & nbsp; $ 1000 and & nbsp; reach the & nbsp; level $ 1020 for & nbsp; ounce. This can occur mainly on & nbsp; amid rising gold prices for & nbsp; to & nbs
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